The impact of price insulation on world wheat markets during COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis

This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.

Reaction of the cereal market to the disruption of trade flows in Romania

The paper presents the reaction of the Romanian cereal market to the disruption of trade flows caused by certain shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which lead to changes with high impact on the functioning of this market, representing an important test for the resilience of the sector. Due to trade liberalization in global markets, including agri-food markets, the competitiveness of exports has become increasingly important, contributing to the creation of the country's competitive advantage. Any restrictions to trade in agri-food products can distort trade flows, and this disruption will have an impact on supply and prices. Maintaining a balance between imports and exports is essential to ensure domestic market stability. International trade in agri-food products plays an important role in global food security. The results show that Romania mainly exports unprocessed agricultural products, with cereals having the largest share in the export structure, cereal supply is dependent on climate change, yet it is one of the products with the lowest volatility. The cereal market shows a more elastic reaction to price responses, even though demand for staple foods is generally inelastic.

Impact of COVID-19 (2020-2022) on cotton and garments market of Bangladesh: a small country case. (Special Issue: COVID-19 impacts on selected commodities.)

Bangladesh imports roughly 98% of cotton from abroad to produce fabric or yarn (USDA 2020. Cotton and Products Update. Bangladesh. Also available at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cotton%20and%20Products%20Update_Dhaka_Bangladesh_11-30-2020). The production of textiles in Bangladesh depends on the price of raw material, the demand for garment products in the importing countries, smooth supply chain management, and the domestic supply of cheap garment laborers. The global pandemic of COVID-19 disrupted the supply chain of almost all physical goods and services, including textiles. It caused the price of textiles to fall due to a drop in worldwide demand, and increased the marginal cost of textile production due to supply chain interruptions. This paper shows how the decline in the demand for garments, coupled with an increase in cost, shrinks the producer welfare of textile manufacturing and garment exports of the small producing country, Bangladesh.

Evolution of oilseed sector in Romania - an analysis from the perspective of effects produced by the COVID-19 pandemic

Romania ranks first in the European Union for the production of sunflower seeds, third for the production of soybeans and seventh for the production of rapeseed. The paper aims to analyse the effects produced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the evolution of the oilseed sector in Romania. Thus, the following indicators were analysed: evolution of areas under oilseeds, total oilseed production and average yields, as well as the volatility of selling prices for oilseeds. The results of the study reveal that Romania has been the largest producer of sunflower seeds in the European Union. The average yields in sunflower, soybeans and rapeseed have shown great variations in the analysed period. According to Eurostat data, it can be noticed that although Romania is the third large producer of oilseeds in the EU, the average yields continue to be low compared to those from other large EU producers. Yields are also among the most volatile in the EU. The selling prices for soybeans showed a higher increase in the year 2020 than in 2019 in Romania, compared to the increase in the average selling prices of the EU-27 (+9.89%). The selling prices for rapeseed also had a higher increase in 2020 than in 2019 in Romania, compared to the increase in the average selling prices of the EU-27 (+2.31%).

Crop Production and Security in Ningjin County of the North China Plain.

Stable growth in grain production is a critical challenge to ensure food security in North China Plain (NCP), an area dominated by smallholder farming. Food production and security of NCP largely depend on how smallholders farm their land. This study took Ningjin County of the NCP as an example to describe the characteristics of crop planting structure and the changes in crop production based on household surveys, statistics, various documents, and literature by descriptive statistics, calculation of crop self-sufficiency, and curve fitting, and aimed to reveal crop security and the influencing factors of crop production at the household level. The results were as follows: (1) Wheat and maize sown area accounted for 61.69% and 47.96% of the total sown area of crops during 2000-2020, increasing at a rate of 3.42% and 5.93%, respectively. Their planted areas increased from 27.52% and 15.54% in 2000 to 47.82% and 44.75% in 2020, respectively. (2) The self-sufficiency rate of maize showed a significant upward trend and reached its peak in 2019. the self-sufficiency rate of wheat also showed an increasing trend, from 192.87% to 617.37%, which indicates that wheat and maize can meet food self-sufficiency and the per capita grain yield is in a safe state. (3) The trends on wheat yield and fertilizer initially grew, then decreased, closely resembling an inverted "U", while the maize yield showed a pattern of increasing first and then basically remaining stable, similar to an "S" shape. A turning point for fertilizer use (550 kg/ha) was identified, indicating the limits of fertilizer use to increase yield. The national agricultural production and environmental protection policies, continuous improvement of crop varieties, as well as the farmers' traditional practices have significant impacts on crop production. This study will enhance management practices for improved yield, which can support the integrated management of agricultural production in intensive agricultural areas.

Oilseeds development in Morocco in the current international context

Oilseeds are grown mainly for the extraction of vegetable oils and for its by-products needed in livestock feed and in other industrial uses. The oils obtained from them are becoming a staple food used in daily cooking in several countries, and as a result the world demand is constantly increasing. This situation, combined with the exponential increase in the world population and other cyclical factors, is leading to a surge pricing, especially in importing countries. This increase in prices is fueled by soaring oil prices and disruption in supplies following Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea. Morocco is directly impacted by these fluctuations given that the country imports almost its total needs in vegetable oils, oilseeds and meals. The high dependence on imported vegetable oils and oilseed products has a detrimental effect on the economy of Morocco and weighs heavily on the country's trade balance. Considering their increasingly important role in society, the development of a local oilseed sector to reduce Morocco's dependence on imports and cope with the vagaries of global markets has never been more topical in the current context of sustainable agriculture and food sovereignty.

A call for food system change

[...]the UK meets more of its food needs, the country risks having potentially counterfeit food imports and disrupted supply chains. The book describes relevant aspects of British food history, defines terms, lists foods imported and exported, measures freight shipped through UK airports, defines greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and crop production, documents food price trends, gives feed conversion rates for food animals, lists advertising spending by major food companies, explains water rights, and states how much land is owned by the British aristocracy, corporations, and Crown. Lang was a member of the EAT-Lancet Commission and he calls on the UK Government to adopt the Commission's Great Food Transformation recommendations to improve public health, the environment, food citizenship, wage scales, and democratic accountability, and to redistribute power in the food system.

Application of Benford's law in agricultural production statistics

The importance of food supply throughout the world has once again shown its significance in the COVID-19 pandemic period. A continuous food supply is possible with correct agricultural programming. An effective agricultural product programming can only be possible by obtaining precise agricultural data. However, it is very difficult to gather accurate agricultural production statistics from all over the world and confirm their accuracy. In this study, the compatibility of the production statistics of six important agricultural products (wheat, rice, potato, onion, banana, apple) which had been collected from local sources, and had published as opensource by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, with Benford's law was examined for the first time. Data for the last two decades are used to ignore the impact of annual fluctuations. The compatibility of theoretically expected and observed data was tested by Chi-square (X2) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) tests. Although inconsistencies were found in some data by examining the numbers in the first, second, and first two digits, in general, the MAD test results gave a mostly concordant result.

Sustainability assessment of crops' production in India: empirical evidence from ARDL-ECM approach

PurposeThe study aims to evaluate the long- vs short-run relationships between crops' production (output) and crops' significant inputs such as land use, agricultural water use (AWU) and gross irrigated area in India during the period 1981–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to estimate the co-integration among the variables. The study uses the error correction model (ECM), which integrates the short-run dynamics with the long-run equilibrium.FindingsThe ARDL bounds test of co-integration confirms the strong evidence of the long-run relationship among the variables. Empirical results show the positive and significant relationship of crops' production with land use and gross irrigated area. The statistically significant error correction term (ECT) validates the speed of adjustment of the empirical models in the long-run.Research limitations/implicationsThe study suggests that the decision-makers must understand potential trade-offs between human needs and environmental impacts to ensure food for the growing population in India.Originality/valueFor a clear insight into the impact of climate change on crops' production, the current study incorporates the climate variables such as annual rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Further, the study considered agro-chemicals, i.e. fertilizers and pesticides, concerning their negative impacts on increased agricultural production and the environment.

Preface

The 2nd Agrifood System International Conference (ASIC)Professor Jurnalis Kamil Convention Hall, Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia, 8-9 November 2022"Research advancement and innovations in agroecology and smart agrifood systems.”The 2nd Agrifood System International Conference (ASIC 2022) was successfully held on 8-9 November 2022. Due to the covid-19 pandemic, this event was held virtually via the zoom platform, directly from Professor Jurnalis Kamil Convention Hall, Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia. This event was organized by the Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Andalas, Indonesia, and became a part of the event to commemorate the 68th anniversary of the faculty. The theme of the ASIC 2022 was: "Research advancement and innovations in agroecology and smart agrifood systems.”There have been numerous revolutions in agriculture, which have improved competency and led to record-breaking yields and gains. The latest process is "smart farming,” contributing to humanity's survival and future prosperity. Smart farming presents numerous prospects for pervasive interconnection and database computer technology as part of Industry 4.0. Smart farming is the idea of agricultural practice in a creative manner while utilizing cutting-edge technology to improve the quantity and quality of agricultural goods. New methods to assure global food safety are part of the future of the food manufacturing industry. It enables farmers to boost yields more effectively and efficiently. Fertilizers, labor, seeds, and water are just a few resources that can be saved. Smart farming has supporting applications, including land management, selection of varieties, minimizing synthetic fertilizers and pesticide inputs, and replacing them with environmentally friendly inputs. Research and related technological innovations have been carried out but have yet to be adopted and properly integrated.The main objective of this conference was to provide a venue for exchanging knowledge, scientific advancement, and innovative ideas among researchers, academicians, governments, and organizations. The scope includes plant breeding and crop production, soil management, plant protection and food safety, the socio-economic of agriculture and natural resources, and all topics related to agriculture. The committee received more than two hundred paper s coming from 46 institutions, national and international. We encourage student presenters from undergraduate to doctoral programs to present their papers;hence, around 25% of s come from them.The conference program was divided into two main segments: plenary and parallel. The plenary session invited 13 speakers from within and outside the country and was attended by 610 participants during the two days' activities. On behalf of the committee, we greatly appreciate the seven speakers contributing and sharing their knowledge at this event: Dr. Silvain R Perret, Scientific Director of CIRAD, France;Mr. Pierre Ferrand from FAO, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific;Prof. Norman Uphoff, SRI Scientist from Cornell University, USA;Dr. Jauhar Ali, Rice hybrid breeder from IRRI, Philippines;Dr. Trevor A. Jackson, Plant protection scientist from IAPPS/ Coordinator Region XII;Prof. Shamshuddin Jusop, Soil Science Scientist from UPM, Malaysia;and Dr. Wahono: Drone creator from UMM, Indonesia. We also introduced five invited speakers from the Faculty of Agriculture: Dr. Irawati Chaniago - Crop Production;Dr. Dini Hervani - Plant Breeding;Dr. Eka Candra Lina - Plant Protection;Dr. Yuerlita - Socio-economics of Agriculture;Dr. Hery Bachrizal Tanjung - Agricultural Extension. In addition, we have provided an online workshop conducted as a side event on successfully publishing an article in IOP-EES Proceeding.Finally, let me express my sincere gratitude to all presenters, participants, and committee members who contributed significantly to this event's success. Special thanks go to the Rector of Universitas Andalas and the head of the research institute and community service of Universi as Andalas for all the support during the event. We hope to deliver the 3rd ASIC in 2024.Warmest regards,Dr. My SyahrawatiChairperson of the Organizing CommitteeList of Documentations, Conference Committee, Conference Schedule, Parallel Schedule, List of Presenters are available in this Pdf.

Addressing another threat to food safety: Conflict

Conflicts across the globe affect food security and also have a heavy toll on food safety. Many of the areas affected by conflict are breadbaskets for multiple countries. When the production of staple crops is compromised by diverse conflicts, it becomes necessary to grow them somewhere else to satisfy local, regional, and/or international requirements. However, if that production is done in tropical and subtropical zones, it must be done incorporating strategies to prevent mycotoxin contamination, which has negative health, social, and economic impacts. Otherwise, increased production of susceptible crops in mycotoxin-prone areas may augment the already occurring negative impacts, which are severe in the global south.

Effect of coronavirus (COVID-19) on production of spices and its economy in Bangladesh

Coronavirus was detected in Bangladesh first time on March 8, 2020 officially. But Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), first reported in December 2019 from Wuhan in China, had reached the stage of a pandemic. This study was conducted to know the effects of spices against Covid-19 disease, impact of Covid-19 on agro-economy of spices crop and point out of mitigating of spices problem in Bangladesh. Major production of spices was severely affected, causing raw material shortages to the spice production of Bangladesh. Major for spices crop problem were shortages caused by the migration of the workforce due to lockdown. Continuing operation on the industry floor, in the midst of social distancing, and ensuring safety of the spices production, was also a major issue. Although the entire sectors were hit by the economic disruptions, the small-scale spice producers and processors most severely affected. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the prolonged lockdown have made thousands of farmers, labours and traders feel the pinch of a falling spices yield and sale. Increased production cost of onion, chilli, garlic, ginger, turmeric, coriander and black cumin due to Covid-19 situation over normal situation were 10.33, 9.54, 9.04, 11.46, 9.58, 6.21 and 7.21%, respectively. Market price of onion, chilli, garlic, ginger, turmeric, coriander and black cumin were also increased 5.00, 3.90, 1.39, 3.13, 1.40, 1.25 and 2.67 times, respectively, due to the influence of Covid-19.

Fall armyworm invasion in Sub-Saharan Africa and impacts on community sustainability in the wake of Coronavirus Disease 2019: reviewing the evidence

Drawing on a synthesis of the recent empirical literature, we show that since its first report in 2016, fall armyworm has continued to spread rapidly posing severe threats to the food security of smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fall armyworm impacts have been more pronounced during 2020 due to Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) restrictions that hampered labor availability and smallholder access to crop protection inputs. The agricultural system's vulnerability to COVID-19 underscores the need for a recovery effort that focuses on building back better for smallholder communities to overcome the impacts of the pandemic, and build resilience against similar threats in the future. Institutional strengthening, linkages to input and output markets, and microcredit support will address immediate production challenges in the wake of COVID-19. Enhancing the technical capacities of smallholders and regional collaboration for multirisk monitoring and early warning will inform coordinated actions for the sustainable management of fall armyworm and other emerging risks. © 2023 The Author(s)

Impact of the economic crisis on the apple production price in the republic of North Macedonia

Apple production has the greatest significance among all types of fruit crops in Macedonia, sharing 56% of the total fruit production. Due to the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, the prices of agricultural inputs have increased greatly. To that end, the main goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the global economic crisis on the apple production price. The production costs calculation is based on calculation of variable and fixed costs of apple production for 2020 and 2021 as reference years and 2022 as the year when the production price change is considered. Data for the normative calculation and production price for 2020 and 2021 are obtained based on the expert knowledge and confirmed with the semi-structured interview with 3 farmers and 2 apple producing companies. Based on this normative calculation and market prices for inputs in 2020, 2021 and 2022 collected from the 10 input suppliers, AMIS and SSO, the apple production price is calculated. The results show that the economic crisis has a large negative economic impact on apple production, as the estimated full production price of apples in 2022 ha increased by 37% compared with that of 2020 & 2021.

Perceived risk of COVID-19 pandemic on crop production: an implication for food security in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Risk perception is a subjective psychological construct that is influenced by cognitive, emotional, social, cultural, and individual differences, both within and between individuals and across countries. Although the impact of COVID-19 on short- and long-term food security is difficult to predict, some risk factors and lessons from previous pandemics can be identified. The goal of this study is to assess rural farmers' perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on crop production and its implications for food security in West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 634 small-holder farmers in the west Arsi zone district. From November 1-30, 2020, data was gathered through interviews with local farmers. Data was gathered using a semi-structured questionnaire. Six trained expert agricultural workers were used as data collectors and supervisors, respectively, and both were trained. The questionnaire had been pre-tested. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software version 25 was used to analyze the data. To identify factors associated with risk perception of the COVID-19 pandemic on crop production, binary and multivariable logistic regression were used, with statistical significance determined at a p-value of 0.05. RESULTS: This study found that among farmers in West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia, about 32.5% reported having perceived risk of COVID-19 pandemic on crop production, and that age greater than or equal to 57, female sex (AOR,1.48 95% CI (1.03-2.12)), primary Educational status (AOR,2.85(1.78-4.58)), and permanent employed occupation of the house head (AOR, 2.27(1.24-4.17) were found to be independent predictors of perceived risk of COVID-19 pandemic on crop production among farmers in West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia. CONCLUSION: Perceived risk of COVID-19 on crop production was high and varied across age groups, sexes, educational attainment levels, and the occupation of the head of the household.

Growth acceleration/deceleration in Indian spices economy

The consumption of spices is growing in India with an increase in purchasing power. It is forecasted that everyone in the country would be consuming one spice or the other with a high per capita consumption. It is estimated that we may have a population of around 1.69 billion people during 2050 and approximately the per capita consumption of turmeric, ginger, black pepper and cardamom is expected to be about 1.6 kg, 1.2 kg, 148 g and 54 g, respectively. This may increase further owing to rapid urbanization which needs spices as natural food preservatives. Hence, the present study was conducted to analyze the growth trend in spices economy of India during the period 1990-91 to 2021-22 with reference to the selected growth indicators such as area, production, domestic market, export and export value. For estimating the acceleration in the growth rates, the paper uses semi-logarithmic specification of a non-linear (quadratic) equation. From the analysis, it is observed that there is a huge scope for output and export of spices. Despite the Covid pandemic, spices export from India has continued its upward trend during 2020-21 and has attained an all-time high of US $ 4.0 billion mark for the first time in the history of spices export. It also implies that there is strong domestic market for spices in India.

COVID-19 pandemic and resilience in the agricultural sector: a local strategy may solve the global challenges

Agriculture remains a major engine of growth among the majority of developing and underdeveloped countries throughout the globe. But the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has severely affected all sectors of agribusiness industries. In many parts of the world agriculture production became almost half due to the impact of this pandemic. But in two Himalayan regions of India, Darjeeling and Sikkim, mixed effects were observed during the pandemic period. Although a large number of marginal farmers were severely affected during the lockdown and even in the unlock phases, while a significant number of farmers also gained nominal to a large amount of profit;chiefly because of reliability on complete organic farming including producing organic manure and bio-pesticides by the farmers themselves, lack of competition with imported agricultural commodities into the local market due to the inter-state travel ban, marketization of the agricultural products to the consumers through Farmers Producers Organizations (FPOs), NGOs and Sikkim State Co-operative Supply and Marketing Federation ltd. (SIMFED) and above all creation of the Farmers' Helpline at district levels by the local government bodies to solve the problems of the farmers even in the remotest regions.

Agriculture value chain sustainability during COVID-19: an emerging economy perspective

PurposeAgriculture value chains (AVCs) have experienced unprecedented disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic, with lockdowns and stringent social distancing restrictions making buying and selling behaviours complex and uncertain. This study aims provide a theoretical framework describing the stakeholder behaviours that arise in severely disrupted value chains, which give rise to inter-organisational initiatives that impact industry sustainability.Design/methodology/approachA mixed-methods approach is adopted, in which uncertainty theory and relational governance theory and structured interviews with 15 AVC stakeholders underpin the initial conceptual model. The framework is empirically validated via partial least squares structural equation modelling using data from an online survey of 185 AVC stakeholders based in India.FindingsThe findings reveal that buyer and supplier uncertainty created by the COVID-19 lockdowns gives rise to behaviours that encourage stakeholders to engage in relational governance initiatives. Progressive farmers and other AVC stakeholders welcome this improved information sharing, which encourages self-reliance that positively impacts agricultural productivity and sustainability.Practical implicationsThe new framework offers farmers and other stakeholders in developing nations possibilities to sustain their AVCs even in dire circumstances. In India, this also requires an enabling ecosystem to enhance smallholders' marketing power and help them take advantage of recent agricultural reforms.Originality/valueResearch is scarce into the impact of buyer and seller behaviour during extreme supply chain disruptions. This study applies relational governance and uncertainty theories, leading to a proposed risk aversion theory.

Construction of scale to measure impact of COVID-19 pandemic on farm operations of tapioca growers in Kerala & Andhra Pradesh

The impact of COVID-19 and resultant lockdown were quite harsh on agriculture sector of India. Tapioca and plantain farmers suffered the most in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh during COVID-19 pandemic. In this context the present study was conducted to develop a scale to measure impact of COVID-19 pandemic on pre farmgate-post farmgate operations of tapioca growers in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. Four dimensions were identified based on literature review & expert opinion for easy classification and measuring the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. A total 200 statements under four dimensions of impact of COVID-19 pandemic was collected, out of these 80 consistent statements were selected through relevancy test. Out of 80 statements, these 43 statements were retained on the final scale through t-test item analysis. Reliability and validity of the scale indicates its consistency and precision of the results. This scale was found to be reliable and valid.

Problems of food security in the conditions of the open economy of modern Georgia

The article discusses the problems of food security in the open economy of modern Georgia against the background of the ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. After the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the attention of almost all countries of the world, including Georgia, was focused on self-sufficiency of the demand of their population with local agricultural and food products. In such conditions, Georgia has a chance to expand domestic production of agricultural and food products. In order to increase the competitiveness of the food and nutrition products produced in Georgia, it is necessary to improve the connections between the separate links of their production, to synchronize the production processes. In order to increase the level of food self-sufficiency of Georgia, it is necessary to protect the production of import-substituting, domestic, agrarian products with non-tariff barriers, and to properly manage their production and logistics. Significant and rapid changes in the global supply chain of food and nutrition products provoked by the Covid-19 pandemic have become an opportunity to increase the level of food self-sufficiency of Georgia, which needs to be properly used.